2021年 · 第10卷第05期

The incubation period is a crucial index of epidemiology in understanding the spread of the emerging Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we aimed to describe the incubation period of COVID-19 globally and in the mainland of China.

The searched studies were published from December 1, 2019 to May 26, 2021 in CNKI, Wanfang, PubMed, and Embase databases. A random-effect model was used to pool the mean incubation period. Meta-regression was used to explore the sources of heterogeneity. Meanwhile, we collected 11 545 patients in the mainland of China outside Hubei from January 19, 2020 to September 21, 2020. The incubation period fitted with the Log-normal model by the coarseDataTools package.

A total of 3235 articles were searched, 53 of which were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled mean incubation period of COVID-19 was 6.0 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.6-6.5) globally, 6.5 days (95% CI: 6.1-6.9) in the mainland of China, and 4.6 days (95% CI: 4.1-5.1) outside the mainland of China (P=0.006). The incubation period varied with age (P=0.005). Meanwhile, in 11 545 patients, the mean incubation period was 7.1 days (95% CI: 7.0-7.2), which was similar to the finding in our meta-analysis.

For COVID-19, the mean incubation period was 6.0 days globally but near 7.0 days in the mainland of China, which will help identify the time of infection and make disease control decisions. Furthermore, attention should also be paid to the region- or age-specific incubation period.

Chagas disease is a parasitic disease endemic to Latin America, but it has become a disease of global concern due to migration flows. Asymptomatic carriers may host the parasite for years, without knowing they are infected. The aim of this study is to assess prevalence of Chagas disease and evaluate the participants’ level of knowledge between Latin American migrants attending a community-based screening campaign.

Three community-based campaigns were performed in Alicante (Spain) in 2016, 2017 and 2018, including educational chats and blood tests for Trypanosoma cruzi serology. Participants completed a questionnaire assessing knowledge about the mechanisms of transmission, disease presentation, diagnosis, and treatment. People seropositive for T. cruzi underwent diagnostic confirmation by two different tests. Results were analyzed by multivariable logistic regression and expressed as adjusted odds ratios (aORs), adjusting for age, sex, and time in Spain.

A total of 596 participants were included in the study; 17% were aged under 18 years. Prevalence in adults was 11% [54/496; 95% confidence interval (CI): 8.3-14.5%] versus 0% among children. All but one case were in Bolivians. Diagnosis was independently associated with having been born in Bolivia (aOR: 102, 95% CI: 13-781) and a primary school-level education (aOR: 2.40, 95% CI: 1.14-5.06). Of 54 people diagnosed with Chagas disease (most of whom were asymptomatic), 42 (77.7%) returned to the clinic at least once, and 24 (44.4%) received treatment. Multivariable analysis showed that coming from Argentina (aOR: 13, 95% CI: 1.61-1188) or Bolivia (aOR: 1.90, 95% CI: 1.19-3.39) and having received information about Chagas disease in Spain (aOR: 4.63, 95% CI: 2.54-8.97) were associated with a good level of knowledge on the disease. Having primary level studies (aOR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.34-0.98) and coming from Ecuador (aOR: 4.63, 95% CI: 2.52-847) were independently associated with a lower level of knowledge.

Community-based interventions are a good strategy for diagnosing neglected diseases such as Chagas disease in non-endemic countries and for identifying and treating infected, asymptomatic individuals.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major global health threat and the leading infectious disease cause of death worldwide. Access to and retention in TB care remains a challenge for patients, particularly those living in rural and remote settings. This qualitative study explored barriers and facilitators to accessing and maintaining contact with TB care services in communities in Xigaze (Shigatse) prefecture, Xizang Autonomous Region (Tibet Autonomous Region), China from the perspective of persons impacted by TB.

We conduced in-depth interviews with 23 participants impacted by TB in four rural districts in Xigaze prefecture, Xizang Autonomous Region, China between April 2019 and November 2020. Interviews were conducted in Tibetan and Mandarin, transcribed in Mandarin and translated into English. Transcripts were checked against recordings by native Tibetan and Mandarin speakers. QSR NVivo12 software was used for framework analysis guided by an access to care conceptual framework by Levesque et al.

Overall patients reported low awareness of and an indifferent attitude towards TB, although all reported understanding the need to adhere to treatment. Participants reported complex pathways to care, often requiring visits to multiple healthcare facilities. Some participants reported visiting traditional Tibetan medicine (TTM) providers. Participants reported various barriers to accessing care including challenges physically reaching care, out-of-pocket payments for tests, diagnostics and transport. Barriers to maintaining care included medication side effects and worry about treatment effectiveness. Enablers to accessing care identified included knowledge or past experience with TB, integrated models of TTM and western care, supportive village doctors who conducted home visits, free TB treatment and other subsidies, as well as having family support with care and social support as barriers and facilitators to maintaining treatment.

We identified barriers and facilitators to accessing services in rural communities in Xigaze from the perspective of persons impacted by TB. Challenges include complex pathways to care, travel distances, wait times and low awareness. Tuberculosis care in the region could be strengthened by ongoing culturally tailored educational campaigns to increase awareness, partnerships with TTM providers, providing comprehensive treatment subsidies and strengthening the role of family members in comprehensive TB care.

Zoonotic schistosomiasis, caused by Schistosoma japonicum, remains a major public health problem in the Philippines. This study aimed to evaluate the commercially available rapid diagnostic point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (POC-CCA) test in detecting individuals infected with S. japonicum in a human cohort from an endemic area for schistosomiasis japonica in the Philippines.

Clinical samples were collectedin 18 barangays endemic for S. japonicum infection in Laoang and Palapag municipalities, Northern Samar, the Philippines, in 2015. The presence of CCA in filter-concentrated urine samples (n = 412) was evaluated using the commercial kits and the results were converted to images, which were further analyzed by ImageJ software to calculate R values. The diagnostic performance of the immunochromatographic POC-CCA test was compared using the Kato-Katz (KK) procedure, in-house enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) and droplet digital (dd) PCR assays as reference.

The POC-CCA test was able to detect S. japonicum-infected individuals in the cohort with an eggs per gram of faeces (EPG) more than or equal to 10 with sensitivity/specificity values of 63.3%/93.3%. However, the assay showed an inability to diagnose schistosomiasis japonica infections in all cohort KK-positive individuals, of which the majority had an extremely low egg burden (EPG: 1-9). The prevalence of S. japonicum infection in the total cohort determined by the POC-CCA test was 12.4%, only half of that determined by the KK method (26.2%). When compared with the ELISAs and ddPCR assays as a reference, the POC-CCA assay was further shown to be a test with low sensitivity. Nevertheless, the assay exhibited significant positive correlations with egg burden determined by the KK technique and the target gene copy number index values determined by the ddPCR assays within the entire cohort.

By using in silico image analysis, the POC-CCA cassette test could be converted to a quantitative assay to avoid reader-variability. Because of its low sensitivity, the commercially available POC-CCA assay had limited potential for determining the status of a S. japonicum infection in the target cohort. The assay should be applied with caution in populations where schistosome parasites (especially S. japonicum) are present at low infection intensity.

School closure is a common mitigation strategy during severe influenza epidemics and pandemics. However, the effectiveness of this strategy remains controversial. In this study, we aimed to explore the effectiveness of school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics in provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) with varying urbanization rates in China.

This study analyzed influenza surveillance data between 2010 and 2019 provided by the Chinese National Influenza Center. Taking into consideration the climate, this study included a region with 3 adjacent PLADs in Northern China and another region with 4 adjacent PLADs in Southern China. The effect of school closure on influenza transmission was evaluated by the reduction of the effective reproductive number of seasonal influenza during school winter breaks compared with that before school winter breaks. An age-structured Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model was built to model influenza transmission in different levels of urbanization. Parameters were determined using the surveillance data via robust Bayesian method.

Between 2010 and 2019, in the less urbanized provinces: Hebei, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Anhui, during school winter breaks, the effective reproductive number of seasonal influenza epidemics reduced 14.6% [95% confidential interval (CI): 6.2-22.9%], 9.6% (95% CI: 2.5-16.6%), 7.3% (95% CI: 0.1-14.4%) and 8.2% (95% CI: 1.1-15.3%) respectively. However, in the highly urbanized cities: Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, it reduced only 5.2% (95% CI: -0.7-11.2%), 4.1% (95% CI: -0.9-9.1%) and 3.9% (95% CI: -1.6-9.4%) respectively. In China, urbanization is associated with decreased proportion of children and increased social contact. According to the SIRS model, both factors could reduce the impact of school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics, and the proportion of children in the population is thought to be the dominant influencing factor.

Effectiveness of school closure on the epidemics varies with the age structure in the population and social contact patterns. School closure should be recommended in the low urbanized regions in China in the influenza seasons.

Coronaviruses can be isolated from bats, civets, pangolins, birds and other wild animals. As an animalorigin pathogen, coronavirus can cross species barrier and cause pandemic in humans. In this study, a deep learning model for early prediction of pandemic risk was proposed based on the sequences of viral genomes.

A total of 3257 genomes were downloaded from the Coronavirus Genome Resource Library. We present a deep learning model of cross-species coronavirus infection that combines a bidirectional gated recurrent unit network with a one-dimensional convolution. The genome sequence of animal-origin coronavirus was directly input to extract features and predict pandemic risk. The best performances were explored with the use of pre-trained DNA vector and attention mechanism. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the area under precision-recall curve (AUPR) were used to evaluate the predictive models.

The six specific models achieved good performances for the corresponding virus groups (1 for AUROC and 1 for AUPR). The general model with pre-training vector and attention mechanism provided excellent predictions for all virus groups (1 for AUROC and 1 for AUPR) while those without pre-training vector or attention mechanism had obviously reduction of performance (about 5-25%). Re-training experiments showed that the general model has good capabilities of transfer learning (average for six groups: 0.968 for AUROC and 0.942 for AUPR) and should give reasonable prediction for potential pathogen of next pandemic. The artificial negative data with the replacement of the coding region of the spike protein were also predicted correctly (100% accuracy). With the application of the Python programming language, an easy-to-use tool was created to implements our predictor.

Robust deep learning model with pre-training vector and attention mechanism mastered the features from the whole genomes of animal-origin coronaviruses and could predict the risk of cross-species infection for early warning of next pandemic.

With the rebound of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in some countries with high vaccination rate, many concerns on vaccine efficacy have emerged. For example, are the current vaccines ineffective against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) variants? What’s the status of breakthrough infection? To what extent are non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) lifted after high vaccination rate? To clarify these questions, we summarized important findings based on literature and Chinese experience.

Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) infections still present a global health problem. Mass drug administration (MDA) is a widely applied strategy to reduce morbidity and mortality caused by STH. Yet, this approach has some shortcomings. In this study, we analyzed the impact of a multi-intervention integrated deworming approach including MDA, health education (HE), and environmental sanitation improvements (ESI) for sustained STH control in Jiangsu Province of China that was applied from 1989 to 2019.

Data, including infection rate of STH, medications used, coverage of the medication, non-hazardous lavatory rate, and household piped-water access rate in rural areas, and actions related to HE and ESI were collected (from archives) and analyzed in this retrospective descriptive study. Pearson’s correlation analysis was applied to test correlations.

There was a dramatic decline in the infection rate of STH from 1989 (59.32%) to 2019 (0.12%). From 1995 to 1999, MDA and HE were recommended in rural areas. A negative correlation was observed between infection rate and medication from 1994 to 1998 (r= - 0.882, P= 0.048). From 2000 to 2005, targeted MDA was given to high-risk populations with HE continuously promoting good sanitation behaviors. From 2006 to 2014, targeted MDA+ HE and ESI were used to consolidate the control effect. ESI was strengthened from 2006, and a negative correlation was observed between the coverage rate of the non-hazardous lavatory and the infection rate from 2006 to 2019 (r= - 0.95, P < 0.001). The targeted MDA was interrupted in 2015, while continuous efforts like HE and ESI contributed in sustaining STH control.

Multi-intervention integrated deworming strategy contributes to the reduction of STH infections. This approach is a valuable example of how different interventions can be integrated to promote durable STH control.